Sunday, 15 March 2020

Covid consequences

Long queues and empty shelves at the supermarkets are a bizarre phenomenon. The selfishness and greed displayed are disappointing to say the least. But at least there's no threat inherent in swiping all the bog roll. Things in the states are somewhat more disturbing.


In my post of 10 days ago DZ expressed uncertainty over whether he would return to work to help with the Covid 19 crisis. He's had a little time to think about it, and was finally swayed when he remembered this.

I will go back, because I would be too ashamed not to.

Saturday, 7 March 2020

Covid 19. Statistics

Josef Stalin once said, "A single death is a tragedy. A million deaths is a statistic".
With this in mind lets look at a few statistics relevant to Covid 19, assuming a 70% infection rate, and a mortality of 3.4% (the latest WHO estimate) of those infected.

The world population is currently 7.7 billion. If Covid can not be contained, which is looking a very likely scenario, we can expect a total global death toll of 183million

The UK government is making plans for a worst case scenario of 315,000 deaths. Using the assumptions above a more realistic figure for the UK is 1.59 million.

The Grand Princess cruise liner has 3,500 people on board, of whom 2 have already died. Statistically we might expect 100 deaths total. However, there is likely to be a much higher infection rate due to the enforced close proximity of those on board this floating prison. They are likely to be older people, and they have no medical care. 100 is likely to be a forlorn hope.

The USA, with a population of 329.5 million  should expect to lose nearly 8 million of it's citizens. The denial coming from their dear leader is staggering. He has stated that the disease has been stopped, due to his actions, and facts can not be allowed to contradict him. Just like sharpiegate. The response of the US administration is to produce statistics supporting Trump the lunatic. Simply do not  test for the condition. To date fewer than 500 US citizens have been tested. If you don't test, you don't pick up cases and the official current figures confirming 332 cases are a joke. In addition 27 million americans have no health insurance, and many can not afford the test, being billed at over $300. When Mike Pence was questioned on this at a press conference, 4 times, he simply walked away.  17 deaths have been confirmed, a much higher percentage than expected, precisely because the US are suppressing infection rates to assuage the ego of the liar who will not allow people who know what they are talking about to contradict him. Perhaps he'll just tell the angel of death he's fired, his standard approach to those who won't fall into line. Good luck with that.

Wednesday, 4 March 2020


I see that the health secretary is considering asking retired doctors to volunteer to come out of retirement to look after patients with Covid 19. Hmmm.. Lets ignore for a moment that these people are the most likely to die if they become infected. Lets ignore that they are really going to be very unenthusiastic about returning to work at all.. What is interesting is that it is suggested that they will arrange "emergency registration" to allow them to practice. He seems to realise that if these people will have to appraise and revalidate prior to working they are likely to tell him to fuck off.
So, if it's OK for these doctors to work without revalidating, why do the rest of us still have to do it?

DZ still has a licence to practice, so might actually consider it. Not out of any sense of altruism or dedication. He just wonders how much they're prepared to pay. Not nearly enough I suspect.